RISK ANALYSIS IN THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF SPRAYERS

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the economic and financial viability of two technologies used in agricultural production: self-propelled sprayers and spraying drones. Both technologies play relevant roles in modern agriculture, especially with the advent of Agriculture 4.0 and the growing need to optimize production processes. The research evaluates which technology presents the best cost-benefit ratio in different operational scenarios, considering factors such as efficiency, operational costs, and adaptation to working conditions. The research is based on the application of techniques and analysis of revenues and costs that allowed the determination of economic indicators in the economic and financial viability study. In data processing, we used reports, data obtained from field research, and the structure of the company's cash flow statement. We also used statistical tools and Microsoft Excel 2013® software to represent and estimate the established scenario based on pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic data. In the exploratory research, we collected data and conducted informal interviews with experts in the agribusiness and farm management sector, field research, and investigation of other research to deepen our knowledge in the context of the subject studied. Economic and financial viability was assessed using the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback, and Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR) methods. Furthermore, we applied Monte Carlo simulation to measure the "confidence level" of the estimated indicators in relation to the risks, uncertainties, and variability in revenues, costs, and expenses, as estimated in our model, providing a more robust probabilistic analysis of the expected results.