REGULATORY ASYMMETRIES IN INTERNATIONAL REGULATION: COMPARING NUCLEAR AND CYBER REGIMES

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17344610

Keywords:

Cybersecurity, Global Governance, Global Standards, Nuclear Security, International Regulation, Standards Lifecycle

Abstract

Asymmetries in the international regulation of sensitive technologies reflect structural inequalities between regulatory regimes. This article investigates the factors that explain the different regulatory outcomes of nuclear and cyber technologies, questioning why one has achieved high institutionalization while the other remains fragmented. The objective is to compare the regulatory trajectories of these two strategic regimes using the norm lifecycle model proposed by Finnemore and Sikkink (1998), identifying the elements that favor or hinder the consolidation of international norms. The methodology consists of a structured comparison, based on binary coding of variables specific to each stage of the normative cycle (emergence, cascade, and internalization), applied to an analytical matrix constructed from specialized literature and relevant institutional documents. The results indicate that the nuclear regime presents a high normative density in all phases, with consolidated institutional frameworks and strong internalization, while the cyber regime suffers from institutional gaps, epistemological fragmentation, and the absence of binding instruments. It is concluded that the observed differences arise from the combination of institutional legacy, techno-scientific consensus and enforcement capacity, factors that explain the normative asymmetries and offer analytical support for understanding the regulation of other emerging technological domains.

References

ACHARYA, A. “How ideas spread: whose norms matter? Norm localization and institutional change in Asian regionalism”. International Organization, vol. 58, n. 2, 2004.

ADEDOYIN, A.; JOHNSON, I. “Balancing Innovation and Regulation: A Framework for Technology Governance”. ResearchGate [2025]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

ADLER, E. “The emergence of cooperation: national epistemic communities and the international evolution of the idea of nuclear arms control”. International Organization, vol. 46, n. 1, 1992.

BARAM, G. “Cyber diplomacy through official public attribution: Paving the way for global norms”. International Studies Perspectives, vol. 22, 2024.

BEASLEY, R. K.; MEHVAR, A. “Timing bombs and the temporal dynamics of Iranian nuclear security”. European Journal of International Security, vol. 10, n. 2, 2025.

BJÖRKDAHL, A. From Idea to Norm: Promoting Conflict Prevention. Lund: Lund University, 2002.

BRANTLY, A. F. “The cyber deterrence problem”. 10th International Conference on Cyber Conflict. New York: IEEE, 2018.

BROEDERS, D.; CRISTIANO, F. “Cyber norms and the United Nations: between strategic ambiguity and rules of the road”. SSRN [2020]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

CARR, M. “Power plays in global internet governance”. Millennium, vol. 43, n. 2, 2015.

CLARKE, R. A. “Nuclear Disarmament and the 2010 NPT Review Conference”. Global Policy, vol. 1, n. 2, 2010.

DENARDIS, L. The global war for internet governance. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014.

EGELAND, K. “A theory of nuclear disarmament: Cases, analogies, and the role of the non-proliferation regime”. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 43, n. 1, 2022.

FINDLAY, T. et al. Unleashing the nuclear watchdog: strengthening and reform of the IAEA. Waterloo: Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2012.

HÄHNEL, M. “Conceptualizing dual use: a multidimensional approach”. Research Ethics, vol. 21, n. 2, 2024.

HASSID, N. MATANIA, E. “A Global Regime for Cybersecurity and the Obstacles to Future Progress”. Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, vol. 30, n. 1, 2024.

HODGINS, M. W. “The perils of cybersecurity regulation”. ResearchGate [2024]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

HÖHNE, C. “Exporting norm interpretations from the Global South: explaining India's reasons for contesting and reshaping international climate norms”. Earth System Governance, vol. 25, 2025.

HUQ, A. Z. “The geopolitics of digital regulation”. The University of Chicago Law Review, vol. 92, n. 3, 2025.

INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR SAFETY GROUP. Strengthening the Global Nuclear Safety Regime. Vienna: IAEA, 2006.

JANKOWITSCH-PREVOR, O. “The Normative Role of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Legal Basis and Legal Sources”. ResearchGate [2010]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

KELLO, L. “Cyber legalism: why it fails and what to do about it”. Journal of Cybersecurity, vol. 7, n. 1, 2021.

KEOHANE, R. O.; NYE, J. S. Power and Interdependence. New York: Longman, 1984.

KISSLING, C. Civil society and nuclear non-proliferation: how do states respond? London: Routledge, 2016.

KORKMAZ, S. C. Emerging technologies and power asymmetry in international system: an analysis over artificial intelligence”. ResearchGate [2024]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

KRASNER, S. D. (ed.). International Regimes. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983.

KROOK, M. L.; TRUE, J. “Rethinking the life cycles of international norms: the United Nations and the global promotion of gender equality”. European Journal of International Relations, vol. 18, n. 1, 2012.

KÜTT, M.; STEFFEK, J. “Comprehensive prohibition of nuclear weapons: an emerging international norm?”. The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 22, n. 3, 2015.

LANTIS, J. S. “Norm cluster resiliency in the face of contestation: Nuclear threats and international resolve”. In: LANTIS, J. S. et al. Contestation in prism: The evolution of norms and norm clusters in contemporary global politics. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025.

LI, J. “Governing high-risk technologies in a fragmented world: geopolitical tensions, regulatory gaps, and institutional barriers to global cooperation”. ResearchGate [2025]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

LING, E. S. “Global Cybersecurity Governance Is Fragmented–Get over It”. ResearchGate [2021]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

LUPOVICI, A. The “‘attribution problem’ and the social construction of ‘violence’: taking cyber deterrence literature a step forward”. International Studies Perspectives, vol. 17, n. 3, 2016.

MADNICK, B. Et al. “The evolution of global cybersecurity norms in the digital age: A longitudinal study of the cybersecurity norm development process”. Information Security Journal: A Global Perspective, vol. 33, n. 3, 2024.

MARTINS, R. C. et al. “Eficiência social da cooperativa Sicredi Centro-Sul MS: uma abordagem determinista de fronteira e índice de Malmquist”. Boletim de Conjuntura (BOCA), vol. 22, n. 65, 2025.

MÜLLER, H.; WUNDERLICH, C. “Not lost in contestation: How norm entrepreneurs frame norm development in the nuclear nonproliferation regime”. Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 39, n. 3, 2018.

NORMAN, D. J. “Transnational civil society and informal public spheres in the nuclear non-proliferation regime”. European Journal of International Relations, vol. 25, n. 2, 2019.

NYE JR, J. S. “Deterrence and dissuasion in cyberspace”. International Security, vol. 41, n. 3, 2016.

NYE JR, J. S. “From bombs to bytes: Can our nuclear history inform our cyber future?”. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 69, n. 5, 2013.

NYE, J. S. “Nuclear lessons for cyber security?”. Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 5, n. 4, 2011.

OECD. Framework for Anticipatory Governance of Emerging Technologies. Paris: OECD, 2024.

PIERUCCI, F. “Sovereignty in the digital era: rethinking territoriality and governance in cyberspace”. Digital Society, vol. 4, n. 1, 2025.

RAMICH, M. S.; PISKUNOV, D. A. “The securitization of cyberspace: From rulemaking to establishing legal regimes”. International Relations, vol. 22, n. 2, 2022.

REINHOLD, T. et al. “Desafios para o controle de armas cibernéticas: um estudo qualitativo com entrevistas com especialistas”. Zeitschrift Für Außen-und Sicherheitspolitik , vol. 3, 2023.

RIEBE, T.; REUTER, C. “Dual-use and dilemmas for cybersecurity, peace and technology assessment”. In: REUTER, C. Information Technology for Peace and Security: IT Applications and Infrastructures in Conflicts, Crises, War, and Peace. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2019.

ROBERTS, H. et al. “Global AI governance: barriers and pathways forward”. International Affairs, vol. 100, n. 3, 2024.

RUBLEE, M. R. Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Choose Nuclear Restraint. Athens: University of Georgia Press, 2009.

RYAN, C. “Efficacy of the Non-Proliferation Treaty on an International Scale”. ResearchGate [2022]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

SHUBAYR, N. “Medidas de segurança nuclear: Uma revisão de tecnologias e estratégias emergentes selecionadas”. Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences, vol. 17, n. 1, 2024.

SIDHU, W. S. “The nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime”. Security Studies, vol. 4, 2023.

SIRACUSA, J. M.; WARREN, A. “The nuclear non-proliferation regime: an historical perspective”. Diplomacy and Statecraft, vol. 29, n. 1, 2018.

WING, C.; SIMPSON, F. Detect, Dismantle, and Disarm: IAEA Verification, 1992–2005. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2013.

ZHANG, Y.; PINKSE, J.; MCMEEKIN, A. “Hybrid governance of digital platforms: exploring complementarities and tensions in the governance of peer relationships”. ResearchGate [2024]. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 12/06/2025.

Published

2025-09-30

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

REGULATORY ASYMMETRIES IN INTERNATIONAL REGULATION: COMPARING NUCLEAR AND CYBER REGIMES. Conjuncture Bulletin (BOCA), Boa Vista, v. 23, n. 69, p. 173–195, 2025. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17344610. Disponível em: https://revistaboletimconjuntura.com.br/boca/article/view/7909. Acesso em: 29 jan. 2026.