OPÇÕES REAIS: ANÁLISE DE INVESTIMENTOS SEQUENCIAIS EM UM PROJETO DE INOVAÇÃO TECNOLÓGICA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14942245Keywords:
Innovation, Investment Analysis, Managerial Flexibility, Real Options Theory, Sequential Investments, Technology Readiness LevelAbstract
This study aims to present the analysis of a sequential investment in a technological innovation project, through the Real Options Theory (TOR), associated with its level of technological readiness, or Technology Readiness Level (TRL). Such an approach is justified due to the need to consider uncertainty and volatility, as well as managerial flexibility, when evaluating investments in technological projects. Therefore, the study explains the advantages and limitations of using TOR for the type of investment in question, compared to the traditional method, that is, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV). As a methodology, the study initially presents a brief literature review and then applies different approaches to investment evaluation, on the data of a case study of an engineering company. For the investment analysis, the study presents and uses the NPV and TOR approaches, the latter being through the binomial method. To the original case study, a free adaptation was added to a simulation of the distribution of financial resources over time, in order to illustrate an investment made in stages. In the end, the study presents an analysis of the results and a comparison between those two approaches, concluding that, despite the complexity of use, the integration between TOR and TRL allows the evaluation of technological projects throughout their maturity phases, considering the managerial flexibility, volatility, uncertainty and risks associated with each stage of the technological innovation project.
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